Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
